Indian Test teams of the past had enjoyed success at home, but none were ruthless enough to close out matches with such regularity. Kohli's reign started with the team in a trough, when MS Dhoni announced his retirement in Australia mid-tour in 2014, but India were soon on a hot streak at home that ended against Australia in Pune three years later. For example, for Australia winning the Pune Test in India in 2016, a K-factor of 48 was used, but when India beat Australia in the next Test in Bangalore, the K-factor was 32. Using a second value of K-factor, a lower one, helped in accounting for home matches. Because the number of Test matches played a year is rather low compared to the number of games in other league sports, a high K-factor has been used. This number usually varies between 20 and 40 for different sports. There are two parts to Elo rating calculations:ġ) Measuring the expectation of win of each opponent in a match, which depends on the difference in the teams' current ratings, which in turn depends on what happened in their previous games, and so on.Ģ) Applying a weight factor, K, which determines the final exchange of points between teams, or ratings fluctuations. The number of points gained or lost depends on the factors above. When a team wins, it extracts points out of the opposition when it loses, it hands points to the opponent. The algorithm uses form, history, the quality of opposition, and in the current study, the difference in home-away and subcontinental-outside conditions, by just considering the result of a game ( see explainer graphic below). Since then, variations of Elo have been applied to many other sports - baseball, football, basketball, tennis, boardgame championships, electronic sports, and even in consumer apps such as Tinder. The graph shows the Indian Test team's ratings as calculated using an adaptation of the Elo algorithm, the beautifully simple yet extremely powerful mathematical tool that was developed around 60 years ago to determine the rankings of chess players. That's the Indian team under Virat Kohli's captaincy. Consider the right-most peak in the above figure, which towers above everything else. Seen in totality, the mountains reveal their breadth and scale focus on one and you can unravel not just the physical dimensions but the ridges, the valleys, the stories and the legends. The graph is much like views of Himalayan peaks from a north Indian hill station. It is only in the last quarter of the span that the team surfaces above the average marker consistently. The numbers on the vertical axis - 1400, 15 - can be roughly translated to poor, average and good, and so the first inference from the graph is that for much of their history, India have been a below-average Test team, which is not new information to anyone who follows cricket.
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